China’s recovery from COVID-19 crisis remains uneven, with state investment and production leading a relatively weak consumer recovery. Two important trends are emerging that provide insight into both the near term growth trajectory, and how the investment landscape might shape up.
By Aaron Putham Crude oil demand destruction caused by COVID-19 is expected to be the largest on record, which has created concern about where to store all the unused oil At this stage the only cure for low oil prices will be low oil prices Over the next 12-18 months, the opportunity to play a rebound is more compelling in individual equities and credit market than crude itself The View Oil fundamentals are undoubtedly bearish. Although one may be tempted to think this is already in the price, given crude is down over 60% YTD and at multi-decade lows, the nature of this particular shock keeps short-term risks skewed to the downside. This crisis has a direct impact on the transportation sector, which represents 65% global crude demand and will be substantially depressed in the near term. Prompt WTI prices are unlikely to sustain levels above $30/barrel(bbl) through autumn of this year and we could reasonably touch $10/bbl at some point in the upcoming months. Why are commodities different than equities? Looking back at the …
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The Economics Review 